
OPEC and rival producers agreed in late May to renew their crude output cut of 1.8 million barrels per day until March 2018. The market is waiting for evidence that the cut is working.
The extended cut supports crude prices only if compliance and inventory draws follow. Weak evidence would keep pressure on energy costs that feed into freight and processing.
After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.