OPEC+ faces mixed market signals after US pressure to increase oil supplies

After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Jan 4, 2022OPEC+ Agrees to Revive More Oil Supplies as Market Looks Tighter+3.3%
• May 1, 2019Oil prices mixed as talk of extending OPEC cuts faces rising U.S. supply-2.9%
• Jun 30, 2021Oil prices could skyrocket if OPEC+ fails in pledge to deliver more supply+0.1%
• Jan 3, 2021OPEC ready to adjust oil output increases: Barkindo - Markets - Business Recorder+8.2%
• Jul 19, 2024OPEC+ not expected to change supply levels after market and price stabilisation - Offshore Technology-3.7%

After 187 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -4.0% to +3.5%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Jan 4, 2022OPEC+ Agrees to Revive More Oil Supplies as Market Looks Tighter+2.8%
• May 1, 2019Oil prices mixed as talk of extending OPEC cuts faces rising U.S. supply-3.8%
• Jun 30, 2021Oil prices could skyrocket if OPEC+ fails in pledge to deliver more supply-1.2%
• Jan 3, 2021OPEC ready to adjust oil output increases: Barkindo - Markets - Business Recorder+7.8%
• Jul 19, 2024OPEC+ not expected to change supply levels after market and price stabilisation - Offshore Technology-5.6%

After 41 past policy events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.4%), and +0.3% over 20.

• May 30, 2025EUR/USD pares gains with markets cautious ahead of the US PCE Prices Index report-0.5%
• Mar 26, 2020Central Banks Use Swap Lines to Maintain the Flow of US Dollar | Yale School of Management-0.8%
• Jan 1, 2017China tweaks yuan basket to play down US dollar | South China Morning Post+0.1%
• Mar 3, 2020Too early for U.S. dollar sell-off despite Fed rate cuts - Reuters poll+0.3%
• Jan 10, 2024Trump tariff plans worry ag groups, threaten trade war redux | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.+1.1%