
Commentary notes the oil market is preparing for new IMO shipping fuel regulations, with New York Harbor ultra-low-sulphur diesel futures moving to a premium of more than $21 per barrel. Adjustments are expected to reduce the risk of a severe shortage at the end of next year.
Tight distillate supply ahead of the IMO sulfur rules supports diesel prices, raising bunker and freight costs for ocean grain shipments.
After 90 past bullish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.