Starting in 2020, international maritime diesel standards will require about 85% less sulfur, pushing ships toward lower-sulfur fuel. Analysts expect the change to reshape the global diesel market and could add 5 to 10 cents per gallon to diesel prices as early as Q4 2019.
It may also shift some China-origin cargoes from East Coast to West Coast ports.
Tighter marine fuel rules tighten the global supply of low-sulfur distillate and can lift diesel prices, which feed into freight and feed transport costs. Port rerouting could also change inland freight patterns.
After 90 past bullish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.