
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto said Indonesia will raise its biodiesel blend to B50 this year after months of backtracking on the mandate. The palm-gasoil spread hit a 41-month low, and third-month CPO futures reached a 15-month high of 4,778 ringgit/t.
A confirmed B50 mandate would sharply increase domestic palm oil use for biodiesel, tightening exportable supply and supporting palm and soy oil prices. Narrow palm-gasoil spreads also make biodiesel more economic.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 175 past neutral policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.6% to +3.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.