
Transport experts expect the IMO 2020 rule, which requires ships to switch from bunker fuel to cleaner diesel from January 2020, to raise diesel prices. The EIA projects diesel could be up to 20 cents a gallon higher by 2020, with the main concern being supply availability for trucks.
Ships drawing on the same low-sulfur diesel pool as trucks could tighten supply and lift diesel costs, raising hauling costs for feed. The impact is expected to be most acute in 2020.
After 90 past bullish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.