
Trucking executives fear sharp increases in diesel prices, and possibly shortages, as ocean carriers compete for fuel ahead of the January 1 IMO sulfur limit change. Energy experts from IHS Markit said the shift to ultra-low sulfur fuel is happening quickly.
The date is set by the MARPOL treaty and is not expected to be delayed.
Demand from ships switching to ultra-low sulfur diesel, roughly 3-4 million barrels a day by estimate, could tighten diesel supply and lift prices for freight and farm operations.
After 90 past bullish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.