
Energy analysts expect low-sulfur diesel prices to surge as the IMO 0.5% sulfur mandate takes effect in January 2020. Ocean carriers that use about 4 million barrels of diesel a day must switch fuels, and refinery capacity may not be able to meet demand in time.
Expected shortfalls in low-sulfur distillate supply could push diesel prices sharply higher in early 2020. That would raise fuel and freight costs across feed supply chains.
After 90 past bullish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.