TMC warns that new IMO rules mandating ultra-low-sulphur fuel in merchant shipping from 1 January 2020 could significantly raise road diesel prices. Refiners must produce about 4 million barrels per day of low-sulphur marine fuel, tightening capacity for ULSD.
UK diesel pump prices had reached a four-year high, averaging 134.6ppl.
Diverting refinery output to low-sulphur marine fuel tightens distillate supply and supports diesel prices ahead of the 2020 deadline, raising farm and feed transport costs.
After 90 past bullish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.