German wholesale biodiesel prices rose about 30% from mid-August to 91.6 euro cents per litre, exceeding year-ago levels by 27%. The increase reflects strong September demand for rapeseed methyl ester, which is needed for winter diesel quality, and mineral oil companies stocking up for year-end greenhouse gas quota compliance.
The rise also lifted rapeseed oil prices.
Strong biodiesel demand pulls rapeseed oil into fuel use and supports European oilseed prices, which can lift canola and rapeseed-based meal values. Seasonal winter-blend and quota buying makes the demand push persist into the fourth quarter.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 90 past bullish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.