UFOP says vegetable oil prices would fall further without biodiesel blending mandates in Argentina, Brazil, the US and Indonesia. FAO trade data show vegetable oil prices at their lowest since December 2018.
Biofuel blending requirements are a key support for vegetable oil demand, so policy changes could materially affect soybean and palm oil prices.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.