
Agriculture.com reports that biofuel demand, not Russia's invasion of Ukraine, is the main driver of high vegetable oil prices, according to economist Aaron Smith. Biomass-based diesel uses 16% of global vegetable oil and 30% in the US.
Announced renewable diesel projects could raise US capacity tenfold by 2024 compared with 2020.
Rapid renewable diesel capacity growth will keep absorbing vegetable oil supply, supporting soybean oil and palm oil prices.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.