
Trade groups warn that demand for biofuels, especially renewable diesel, is cutting into feedstock supplies for edible oils. Refiners are buying animal fat, used cooking oil and soybean oil, with soybean oil use for fuel expected to reach 11.5 billion pounds this year.
USDA forecasts average soybean oil prices of 65 cents a pound, more than double two years ago.
Diverting soybean oil into fuel tightens edible oil supply and supports high vegetable oil prices, squeezing food makers and supporting soybean oil values.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.