
Market sources said Indonesia is considering raising its biodiesel blending mandate from B35 to B40, which would absorb about 1.44 million tonnes of palm oil annually. Concerns also emerged about a growing likelihood of an El Niño event.
Diverting roughly 120,000 tonnes per month from export to domestic biodiesel would tighten global palm oil supply. Combined with El Niño risk to future output, this points to higher palm oil prices.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.