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S&P Global reports the global diesel market is tightening as Russia's full export ban, announced July 8, combines with Ukrainian strikes that may have up to 60% of Russian refining offline. European diesel margins have ballooned, with the ARA physical crack reaching $70.3 a barrel on July 13.
Russia also plans to import refined products.
Importing regions in Europe, Latin America and Africa will need replacement barrels, which keeps diesel cracks and freight costs elevated. Higher logistics costs raise the landed cost of imported feed ingredients.
spglobal.comAlexandra Vladimirova, Sophia AungJul 14, 2026After 90 past bullish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Russia's export ban plus Ukrainian strikes on refineries cut supply, with ARA diesel crack reaching $70.3 on July 13, the date of the move.
