
Talk of a possible US ban on fuel exports pushed European diesel prices sharply higher. European buyers had been counting on extra US supplies as they seek alternatives to Russian ULSD ahead of next year's sanctions.
A US export ban would remove a major supply source for Europe and tighten global distillate markets, supporting diesel and freight costs. The impact on feed buyers would come through higher energy and transport prices.
After 90 past bullish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.