Oil steadies after choppy trade, U.S. says export ban not ruled out

After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Oct 5, 2025Oil rises after OPEC+ hikes output less than expected | Reuters-3.1%
• Sep 1, 2021Oil steadies; OPEC+ sticks to gradual output hikes | Reuters+1.3%
• Jul 5, 2026OPEC+ approves further oil output increase as Hormuz exports start to recover | Reuters+3.9%
• Nov 3, 2018U.S. allows eight importers to keep buying Iran oil for now | Reuters-4.7%
• Aug 8, 2018Iran says OPEC may need extraordinary meeting over output changes-3.1%

After 833 past policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -3.3% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Jun 27, 2025Oil steadies after report of planned OPEC+ August output hike | Reuters+2.1%
• Aug 30, 2022Palm Oil Rises After Indonesia Raises Export Tax, Biodiesel Use-9.2%
• Jul 24, 2017Oil gains after Saudi vows to cap crude exports next month+9.4%
• Oct 5, 2025Oil rises after OPEC+ hikes output less than expected | Reuters-2.7%
• Sep 1, 2021Oil steadies; OPEC+ sticks to gradual output hikes | Reuters-2.2%

After 90 past bullish policy events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (66% higher; middle half -1.9% to +4.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Aug 31, 2022Talk of US Export Ban Spooks Diesel Traders-5.8%
• Jul 9, 2026Russia Diesel Export Ban: Price Impact & Trade Shifts Russia's diesel export ban adds fresh fuel to rising prices | Kpler - Jul 09, 2026+7.7%
• Jul 14, 2026Global diesel market tightens as Russian export ban, Ukraine strikes bite | S&P Global+7.1%
• Apr 2, 2023Oil prices surge after surprise move to cut output+2.0%
• Apr 3, 2023Oil prices notch biggest gain in nearly a year after OPEC's surprise output cut+2.0%