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Purdue's Scott Irwin says the biggest uncertainty for renewable diesel and FAME biodiesel is how the new Trump administration will set 2026 RVOs, along with implementation of the 45Z tax credit. He describes three biofuel booms since 2000, with renewable diesel the most recent.
Irwin notes that sustainable aviation fuel production remains low.
Uncertainty over 2026 RVOs and 45Z makes soybean oil biofuel demand hard to forecast, which adds risk premium and volatility to soybean oil pricing.
iasoybeans.comIowa Soybean AssociationJan 2, 2025After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
