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A Chicago Fed article summarizes the Midwest biofuels outlook from its 2021 Agriculture Conference. Speaker Scott Irwin describes ethanol and biodiesel as shaped by renewable fuel standard policy and volatile fuel prices, with ongoing pandemic effects, electric vehicles and a new administration adding uncertainty.
Biofuel policy and fuel-price volatility determine how much corn and vegetable oil goes into fuel, so the policy uncertainty affects longer-term demand for these feedstocks.
chicagofed.orgKathy CobbDec 14, 2021After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
After 196 past neutral policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
