
EPA proposed a total of 20.04 billion gallons of biofuels for 2020, with the increase almost entirely from cellulosic biofuels. The agency kept biodiesel at 2.43 billion gallons for 2021 and cited tariffs on Argentine and Indonesian biodiesel and the lapsed biodiesel tax credit.
Little growth in biodiesel mandates limits soybean oil demand from the biofuel sector, which is bearish for soybean oil and the soy crush.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.