The Biden administration is reportedly circulating an EPA document proposing multi-year reductions to renewable fuel blending targets below 2019 levels. The draft sets 2020 total volume at 17.1 billion gallons, 2021 at 18.6 billion, and 2022 at 20.7 billion, with conventional biofuel gallons falling to 12.5 billion for 2020.
Cutting conventional biofuel volumes reduces corn ethanol demand and soybean oil demand for biofuels, which pressures corn and soybean oil prices.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.