
President Trump's November 14 executive order exempted urea, ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulphate and phosphate fertilizers from reciprocal tariffs, while potash was already exempt. Anhydrous ammonia was added to a list for potential future tariff adjustments.
Analysts told Agri-Pulse that fertilizer prices will likely stay elevated through the next planting season despite the tariff cuts.
Tariff relief on urea and phosphates lowers import costs, but tight global supply and continued countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate limit price declines. Feed buyers should not expect a quick drop in fertilizer-driven corn costs.
After 34 past bearish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.