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India's fertilizer secretary Arun Singhal expects global prices of urea and DAP to soften further, which should cut the government's FY24 fertilizer subsidy well below the record Rs 2.45 trillion estimated for FY23. Urea has fallen by a third since October.
Future prices will depend on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Expectations of further softening in urea and DAP prices point to continued bearish pressure on fertilizer import costs for India.
magzter.comSANDIP DASJan 18, 2023After 34 past bearish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
After 50 past bearish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
