
The Vietnam Fertilizer Association proposed cutting urea export tax to zero to boost competitiveness. Fertilizer export prices and volumes fell in the first half of 2023, with prices down 60-65% from a year earlier, after China lifted export restrictions on 29 fertilizer types.
Expanded Chinese and Vietnamese fertilizer supply keeps global nitrogen prices under pressure, lowering input costs for grain and feed producers.
After 34 past bearish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.