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China's CAMPA and NDRC agreed with 15 trading companies on an export quota of close to 1 million tonnes through early 2025 for product already in port. A separate producer quota of 3-4 million tonnes is expected.
Urea prices fell across the board that week, with Arab Gulf values down nearly $50/t.
Expected Chinese export volumes near historical levels add significant urea and phosphate supply, reinforcing bearish price pressure on fertilizers.
czapp.comStein Chingen HauganNov 27, 2023After 34 past bearish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
After 50 past bearish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
China's export quota deal (about 1 Mt of product in port, with more producer quota expected) raised the prospect of more Chinese urea reaching global markets, and Arab Gulf prices fell nearly $50/t that week, which fits the sharp one-day drop.
