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China announced it will resume export of 7 million tonnes of DAP and MAP from March 15 under a quota. Separately, US urea prices rose by about USD 27/tonne on tight supply, and Brazilian and Egyptian urea offers also firmed.
The Chinese export quota adds sizeable phosphate supply, which should pressure DAP prices, while tight US urea supply and firm offers from other origins support nitrogen prices.
czapp.comStein Chingen HauganMar 4, 2024After 50 past bearish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
China's announcement on 2024-03-04 of a 7 Mt DAP/MAP export quota resuming March 15 is a major supply and trade-flow signal that could trigger sharp repricing, though easing supply would normally be bearish, so the direction of the +6.55% move is not clearly explained and may reflect a rush to cover ahead of or amid the clarity.
