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China will prohibit fertiliser exports until at least April 2024, with export clearance not issued until after its domestic season ends. The aim is to stabilise or lower domestic prices.
Urea prices were quoted around USD 300 to 330 per tonne CFR, and the article describes world urea, potash and ammonia markets as oversupplied.
A export ban removes a major supplier from the global market during the Northern Hemisphere spring buying season, which supports urea and phosphate prices despite oversupply elsewhere.
czapp.comStein Chingen HauganDec 4, 2023After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
