Loading…
China's Nitrogen Fertilizer Association set a urea export quota of 2 million tonnes, well below the 4 million tonnes initially reported, with application windows from May to September. Export certificates are valid one month and ex-factory prices are capped at May 6 levels, while DAP and MAP prices are climbing on reduced Chinese export quotas of 2 million and 1 million tonnes.
Constrained Chinese urea and phosphate exports keep global fertilizer supply tight, supporting input costs for feed producers and farmers' crop margins.
czapp.comStein Chingen HauganMay 19, 2025After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reduced Chinese DAP/MAP export quotas (2 Mt and 1 Mt) constrain supply and push DAP prices higher, matching the timing of the move.
China's reduced DAP and MAP export quotas of 2 and 1 million tonnes tighten global phosphate supply and push DAP prices higher, though the news came a few days before the move.
China's 2 Mt urea export quota with ex-factory prices capped signals a resumption of Chinese supply, which weighs on global prices from tight-supply highs.
Reduced Chinese DAP/MAP export quotas of 2 Mt and 1 Mt are pushing DAP prices higher via constrained supply.
