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China's ban on fertilizer exports has halted processed phosphate exports, even for cargoes already cleared. Chinese DAP export prices are nominal, and exports may stay restricted into 2024.
Potash markets are quiet with further declines expected in Brazil, while ammonia buyers expect lower prices.
With China out of the market, phosphate supply rests on Morocco and Saudi Arabia, pushing DAP and MAP prices higher for importers such as Brazil and Australia, while potash and ammonia remain softer.
czapp.comStein Chingen HauganNov 20, 2023After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
