Reports say China's government is tightening fertiliser export restrictions by asking urea producers in Shanxi, Hebei and Shandong to suspend export certificate applications. Smaller phosphate producers in Hubei have also been asked to suspend applications.
Curbing Chinese urea and phosphate exports removes a major source of global supply, supporting fertilizer prices and raising input costs for feed grain producers.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.