
China's urea exports fell 86.2% year on year in the first half of 2024, to about 140,000 tonnes, as Beijing tightened export controls to cool domestic prices. Customs data showed June shipments down 67%.
Analysts said any relaxation depends entirely on government decisions, likely after the September end of the fertiliser season.
China supplies roughly a third of global urea, so restricted exports tighten world supply and support urea prices, pushing buyers toward Russia, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.