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China's 2026 urea export quota is 3.3 million tonnes, about 1.7 million below 2025 shipments of roughly 5 million tonnes. Beijing also sets minimum FOB price floors of $430–$440/t, rising to $500/t for India-bound cargoes.
Indian state tenders have been heavily oversubscribed.
A sharply reduced Chinese quota removes a major share of global urea supply, and China's price floors put a cost floor under world nitrogen prices. This supports urea into Q4 and raises the cost of nitrogen used in feed-grain production.
fertilizerdaily.comKim ClarksenSep 18, 2026After 129 past bullish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.3%), and +1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
