
Bangladesh's fertiliser subsidy bill is expected to fall to about Tk 7,000 crore in the outgoing fiscal year, down 9% from Tk 7,700 crore, as lower global prices and cheaper transport reduce costs. Importers say DAP can be bought for $309-315 per tonne versus $358-364 a year earlier, while MOP prices rose $80 this season.
Lower DAP import costs point to softer phosphate fertiliser prices in Bangladesh, while the rise in potash prices is a partial offset. For feed buyers this is a minor input-cost signal rather than a direct grain or meal price driver.
After 50 past bearish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.