
China has issued urea export quotas, according to sources cited by Reuters, after banning many fertilizer exports in March. Two Chinese producers confirmed receiving quotas, and India is expected to be a major buyer.
Renewed Chinese supply could ease global urea prices that have surged since Hormuz closed, lowering nitrogen input costs for grain producers.
After 34 past bearish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reuters-sourced confirmation that Chinese producers received export quotas validated the return of Chinese supply, triggering sharp selling.
Reuters-sourced confirmation that Chinese producers received export quotas, with India a likely buyer, reinforced expectations of added global supply.