
China's most-active urea futures on the Zhengzhou exchange fell 2.2% to 1,670 yuan per tonne, the lowest in over a year. New customs rules on small-packaged fertilizers and continued export curbs added pressure amid rising inventories and capacity expansion.
Chinese oversupply and export restrictions weigh on global urea prices, although Asian buyers are shifting to other suppliers, which limits the downside.
After 34 past bearish policy events, UREA moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.