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China is loosening its ban on urea exports from June, according to people familiar with the matter. Chinese companies will still face quotas and in some cases minimum shipment prices, and exports to India remain restricted.
More Chinese urea entering export markets should add supply and ease the Middle East-driven price spike, pressuring urea prices lower.
After 34 past bearish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.