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Profercy reports that China has begun issuing urea export quotas of roughly 1.5 to 1.6 million tonnes for June to August, with minimum FOB price floors of $660 per tonne for prilled and $670 for granular urea. Local Chinese prices are well below $300 per tonne FOB equivalent, and direct sales to India may be permitted at a $20 premium.
Chinese quota supply could add meaningful urea volume to a tight global market, though the high price floors may limit how much it eases international prices.
profercy.comKuganiga KuganeswaranMay 26, 2026After 34 past bearish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
China reopening urea exports with quotas of about 1.5-1.6 mt for June-August signals a major supply return, which drove a sharp bearish repricing.
China issuing urea export quotas (1.5-1.6 Mt for June-August) reopens a large supply source after months of absence, a direct bearish supply shock for global urea prices.
