
The US Commerce Department placed preliminary countervailing duties of 16.88% on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco's OCP Group and 21-72.5% on certain Russian imports. A final decision is not expected until April, and the Biden administration will make the final call.
Mosaic, the largest US phosphate producer, petitioned for the investigation and says it needs curbs on imports to survive.
If the duties are finalized, US phosphate supply would tighten and domestic DAP and MAP prices would likely firm, raising costs for feed and crop producers.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.