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Agri-Pulse's Sara Wyant reports that the reconciliation bill raises PLC reference prices by 10% and 20% and adds up to 30 million base acres. It also raises the ARC maximum coverage to 90% of benchmark revenue with a 12% payment band.
Terrain analysis suggests wheat growers could receive about 80 cents per bushel from ARC and 95 cents from PLC at current prices.
Higher reference prices and new base acres raise payments that keep acreage in production, which is bearish for corn, soybeans and wheat over time. The payments mainly start in 2026.
hpj.comSara WyantJul 18, 2025After 310 past bearish policy events, Corn moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 122 past bearish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
