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Rabobank's annual review says US renewable diesel capacity expansion outpaced EPA's final biomass-based diesel mandates set in June, creating oversupply and a collapse in D4 RIN prices. Soybean oil futures fell roughly 15% over August and September, and crude faces possible further downside from weak demand.
Oversupply in biomass-based diesel reduces incentive for soyoil crush-driven demand, pressuring soybean oil and meal values as crushers face weaker margins.
processingjournal.comMilling JournalDec 25, 2023After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 215 past bearish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -4.4% to +3.3%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
