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An opinion piece argues that the farm bill debate over reference prices and crop subsidies is stalling renegotiation in Congress. It notes that commodity prices for corn, soybeans, rice, wheat and cotton have been high but economists expect them to fall in coming years.
The piece also cites rising input costs for seed, fertilizer, pesticides and equipment.
Expectations of falling commodity prices and continued row crop overproduction are a bearish backdrop for corn, soybeans and wheat. Subsidy design affects how much acreage stays in production, but the article gives no near-term price catalyst.
barnraisingmedia.comBryce Oates, Jake DavisFeb 12, 2024After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
