
CoBank's economist says the Senate farm bill draft would raise reference prices to boost PLC payments for corn and soybean producers, while the House version keeps 2014 reference prices. Farmers disagree on whether current reference prices favor some crops over others.
Higher corn and soybean reference prices would encourage planting and support acreage, adding supply pressure that could weigh on prices if enacted.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.