Farm Bill in Reconciliation: ARC/PLC Payment Projections; Policy Design Lab Update - farmdoc daily

After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.

• Aug 22, 2025The Reconciliation Farm Bill: Top Five Most Problematic Changes to Farm Policy, #3 - farmdoc daily-0.6%
• Jul 11, 20252025 Reconciliation Farm Bill – Summary Overview | Farm Office-0.7%
• May 4, 2018How will farm bill debate settle PLC vs. ARC?+0.8%
• Aug 1, 2020Ad Hoc Payments: A Leading Indicator of Farm Policy Change-1.4%
• Sep 27, 2024Squeezing the Farmer, Part 1: Initiating Examination of a Persistent Challenge - farmdoc daily+2.2%

After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Aug 22, 2025The Reconciliation Farm Bill: Top Five Most Problematic Changes to Farm Policy, #3 - farmdoc daily-0.6%
• Jul 11, 20252025 Reconciliation Farm Bill – Summary Overview | Farm Office+0.9%
• May 4, 2018How will farm bill debate settle PLC vs. ARC?-2.9%
• Aug 1, 2020Ad Hoc Payments: A Leading Indicator of Farm Policy Change-3.0%
• Aug 25, 2026The Policy that May Cause $1 billion in Lost Revenue for Farmers+4.9%

After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Jul 11, 20252025 Reconciliation Farm Bill – Summary Overview | Farm Office-2.3%
• May 17, 2024Key Provisions in House Farm Bill - Pro Farmer+19.4%
• Feb 12, 2024What are reference prices and why are they in the farm bill?-4.8%
• Oct 25, 2024Farm bill's death puts key programs in jeopardy as trade deficit explodes | An official publication of Michigan Farm Bureau+0.1%
• May 22, 2024Analysis: Farm program payments would more than double for southern crops | Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.-7.4%