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EPA released proposed Renewable Volume Obligations for 2023 to 2025 on December 1, 2022, setting three years of targets and departing from its usual methodology based on expected production. The analysis says the targets reduce biofuel volumes based on a claimed biomass-based diesel feedstock shortage.
The author calls it the most significant biofuels event in a decade.
The departure from production-based targets creates uncertainty for biodiesel and renewable diesel margins, with potential knock-on effects on soybean oil demand and RIN values.
turnermason.comJan 31, 2023After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
