
China is pushing for food self-sufficiency, with a target to raise soybean output 40% by the end of 2025. Domestic soybean production hit a record 20.28 million tonnes in 2022, up 23.7%, while China still relies heavily on US and Brazilian imports.
Expanding Chinese domestic output over time could reduce import demand for soybeans and soymeal, a bearish long-run factor for global soybean prices.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 222 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.