
The EPA's proposed RFS volumes show overall biofuel growth of about 2 billion gallons from 2023 to 2025, with modest biomass-based diesel increases from 2.76 billion gallons in 2022 to 2.95 billion by 2025. The biodiesel industry says these volumes are lackluster compared with its existing production capacity.
Weak biodiesel volume growth reduces expected soybean oil demand and makes planned soybean crush expansion look riskier, pressuring soybean oil prices.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.