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Soybean crush margins fell sharply after EPA's December proposal set biomass-based diesel volumes at 2.82 billion gallons for 2023, rising to 2.95 billion by 2025. The proposal disappointed the soybean sector, which expected far more growth given roughly seven billion gallons of planned biodiesel and renewable diesel capacity.
Industry economists argued that the expanded crush capacity would tighten feedstock supplies.
Lower renewable fuel mandates reduce soybean oil demand and crush margins, which can slow crush expansion and reduce meal output, supporting soybean meal prices while pressuring soybean oil.
producer.comSean PrattFeb 25, 2023After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 172 past bullish policy events, SBM moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
