Reuters reports that as many as 10 Brazilian soybean crushers have temporarily halted crushing because of negative margins. Vegetable oil stocks are rising as domestic biodiesel demand has weakened, and some plants moved their annual maintenance forward to reduce supply.
Brazil cut its biodiesel blending mandate earlier this year and has not restored it.
Lower crushing reduces soybean meal output, which supports meal prices, while weak biodiesel demand keeps soy oil stocks heavy and pressures oil prices.
After 172 past bullish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.