Argentina will cut its soybean export tax by 12 percentage points to 18 percent by 2020, with the levy held at 30 percent through 2017. A 0.5-point monthly reduction is scheduled for 2018 and 2019, and the same schedule applies to the 27 percent levy on soyoil and soymeal exports.
Lower export taxes should encourage more Argentine soy planting and increase exportable surplus of soybeans, soymeal and soyoil, which is bearish for world soy product prices over time.
After 222 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.1% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
After 351 past bearish policy events, SBO moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 369 past bearish policy events, SOY moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.