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China's five-year plan aims to cut maize area 13 percent and raise soybean area 40 percent from 2015 levels by 2020 to reduce import dependence. China buys about two-thirds of globally traded soybeans, and over a third of its imports come from the US, which is exposed to threatened 25 percent tariffs.
Long-term domestic soy expansion would cut China's import needs over time, a bearish structural factor for global soybean demand, while the tariff threat adds near-term uncertainty for US soy exports.
bofit.fiBOFITApr 13, 2018After 369 past bearish policy events, Soybeans moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
